Agmates

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is convinced the science on man made global warming is settled. In fact he’s so convinced that the science of the IPCC and NASA’s James Hansen is correct that his number 1 political priority is the introduction of an Emissions Trading Scheme by mid 2010.

The latest science shows that the IPCC’s Climate Change Modelling is grossly overstated..

Climate change may not be as severe as predicted, suggests an international study that shows current modelling of carbon dioxide emissions from soils are overestimated by as much as 20%.

The view, reported in the latest Nature Geoscience journal, is based on a study of Australian soils that finds the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released by Australian soils is much lower than previously believed.

The finding has major implications for climate change predictions as annual carbon emissions from soils are estimated to be more than all human-made CO2 emissions combined.

The incredibly ironic thing is that one of the reports Co_Authors Dr Evelyn Krull [pictured] , is a scientist at the Australian governments own CSIRO Land and Water. Dr Krull goes on to say:

For Australia, a proportion of 20% charcoal in soils would lead to a 135 teragram (135 billion kilograms) overestimation on a continental scale.

“On an annual basis, an inflated prediction from topsoils alone equates to … 84% of CO2 emissions associated with aviation for Australia using values obtained for 2006,” the paper says.

Surprise, Surprise the research has found that climate change modelling is grossly overstated.

…this means that current scenarios predicted by climate change modeling “are making it look worse than it actually would be”.

This highlights the need for a global initiative to analyse soils worldwide for charcoal content so that modeling can be more accurate, she says.

Beautiful - the climate models are overstated. All the while Rajendra Pachauri, James Hansen, Al Gore, Tim Flannery, Don Henry , Barry Brook & Clive Hamilton of the alarmist cause try to tell us Global Warming is happening faster than the models actually predicted.

The science on man made global warming is settled. Yes right.

Also published On Crikey’s Enviro Blog “Rooted”

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Our current Australian anti-farmer policies coupled with a population that grows by 1 person net each 1.3 seconds will lead us to a point within 40 years where we will be a net importer of food. As the world population grows by another 2.3 billion people, food in Australia will indeed become a scarce resource.

During the past 8 years just on 11,000 Australian farmers have left the land. Today just 130,000 farmers or 0.6% of the population not only feed 21.5 million Australians but export enough food to feed double that number.

Australia is one of the world’s major agriculture exporters not because we are a major producer on a world scale, but because we have a small population. Our population is exploding whilst each day our policy makers work hard at reducing the number of farmers and their capacity to produce, in the name of ‘free trade’ and the environment.

As the Australian anti-farmer Federal and State Labour governments continue with policies that shrink our farming sector, world experts are urging them to pour money into ag & water research to avoid world wide food shortages and civil unrest.

THE director-general of the International Water Management Institute, Colin Chartres, has warned that Australia, along with the other developed nations, needs to invest more in research into agriculture and water management and in international aid.

The Rudd government is doing the exact opposite with huge cuts to CSIRO ag research funding including the closing of a number of world renown research facilities.

One of the first things the new Ag Minister Tony Burke did in coming to power 12 months ago was to scrap the very successful Farmbiz program which subsidized training and ongoing resource management education for farmers.

The QLD Labor government has followed up with an announcement it will close more Department of Primary Industry research facilities in that state.

Chartres says the food crisis of the past year was an important warning sign. “We have to heed the warning. Otherwise the ultimate outcome is, if we have millions of people starving in the developing world, much more social unrest, much more fertile ground for terrorists and extremists and the whole world becomes a lot less safe.

There is whole lot standing on it in terms of social security, as well as food security.”

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Senator Cristine Milne asking some probing questions of Australian Wool Innovations chairman Brian von Rooyen in the Senate standing committee.

Senator MILNE» - I want to ask some questions about innovation and the accusation that Australian Wool Innovation has changed its priorities from R&D to promotion.

In terms of dollar figures, is it true that, from spending $60 million in the early 1990s on R&D, we are now down to Australian Wool Innovation giving about $800,000 only to CSIRO and others for R&D of new product?

Just as the Rudd Labor government announces that it was pressing ahead with its Carbon Reduction Scheme two US Scientists have released a paper that contradicts the whole man made global warming theory.

Stunningly their research is from data collected by Australia’s own CSIRO.

Boston (MA) - Scientists at MIT have recorded a nearly simultaneous world-wide increase in methane levels. This is the first increase in ten years, and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas.

According to the Man made Global warming theory thats not supposed to happen.

One thing does seem very clear, however; science is only beginning to get a handle on the big picture of global warming. Findings like these tell us it’s too early to know for sure if man’s impact is affecting things at the political cry of “alarming rates.”

We may simply be going through another natural cycle of warmer and colder times - one that’s been observed through a scientific analysis of the Earth to be naturally occuring for hundreds of thousands of years.

It is beyond comprehension that the Rudd Labor government is planning to plunge Australia into a Carbon Constrained future while current events and science is casting doubts over whether rising CO2 levels are actually causing climate change.

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Australian Scientists have made a major break through in unlocking the genetic code of wheat.

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The break through will allow the development of drought tolerant and disease resistant varieties of the plant that forms the staple diet of over 2.5 billion people.

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CSIRO plant geneticist Richard Richards .. said that by “mapping” the location of potentially important genes, the work would enable researchers to home in on the “enormous diversity” of wheat, a plant that has evolved over millions of years.

Desirable traits could be genetically engineered or enhanced through faster conventional breeding programs.

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Well done to the CSIRO.

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Got a tip off, article or have you seen a video or item you’d like to be seen by the Agmates Community? If so please email it to us at news@agmates.com

Tim Curtin is a economist who lives in Canberra. Below is a comment he posted on the article “Is Kevin Rudd another James Hansen Disciple“:

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Good stuff, Agmates.

Here are some comments of my own on Barry Brook (banned of course from his Blog bravenewclimate), what is he scared of?

Brook has been reported by the media endorsing the so-called Global Carbon project, which is yet another largely CSIRO-inspired ramp, led by James Hansen’s friends, the notorious data manipulators Pep Canadell and Mike Raupach.

Their cheer leader, Barry Brook’s [ pictured below] puff ends by citing GCP’s claim that:

“Emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel and land use change reached the mark of 10 billion tonnes of carbon [GtC] in 2007.

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Natural CO2 sinks are growing, but more slowly than atmospheric CO2, which has been growing at 2 ppm per year since 2000″.

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Let’s analyse this more closely.

Brook chose not to explain that 2ppm equate to 4.25 GtC (i.e. 2.12 GTC = 1 ppm). So what we had in 2007, on the Brook/GCP data, is 10 GtC of emissions, and 4.25 GtC of atmospheric increase, leaving no less than 5.75 GtC (57.5%) taken up by the “slow growing” natural sinks, above the average of 56% since 1958.

But then as a mere economist whom am I to query the accounting techniques of Nobel [Peace] Prize winners like Canadell, who thinks that the rise in atmospheric CO2 since 1958, from 315 ppm to 384 ppm at end-2007, reveals an annual growth rate of 1.89 % pa. (this fictitious rate is what underpins the Garnaut Draft Report).

Finally, Brook assures us that

“450ppm CO2 commits us to >2 degrees C global warming and all the disastrous consequences this sets in train”.

Whatever happened to CO2e, which as Garnaut states, is already at 455 ppm?

These disastrous consequences should already be apparent. Perhaps the meltdown on Wall Street is caused by CO2e emissions?

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Interesting that Barry Brook has blocked Tim Curtin from commenting on his blog. Then again not surprising as the Hansen lead Climate Alarmist avoid any kind of professional academic scrutiny of their outrageous claims. Two words - Hockey Stick.

(thanks to Tim for his input)

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Got a tip off, article or have you seen a video or item you’d like to be seen by the Agmates Community? If so please email it to us at news@agmates.com

Yesterday I posted China Overtakes the USA at No1 Global CO2 Emitter. That article attracted a fair amount of comment.

Australia emits just 1.3% of global emissions while the 4 major global emitters China, USA, Russia & India account for 42.5% of global emissions. Unless the major emitters adopt their own ETS , Australia doing so is a psychotic exercise in self harm.

A report in yesterdays Sydney Morning Herald is indicative of the spin and the tangled web of deceit run by the climate mafia. The report reveals that Dr Michael Raupach [ pictured], a CSIRO scientist is a co-chair of the Global Carbon Project which produced the report.

Then surprise surprise who bobs up to comment but Dr Barry Brook, director of the Research Institute for Climate Change and Sustainability.

A letter Dr James Hansen ( pictured below who is Al Gore’s science adviser) wrote privately to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd back in March revealed that Prime Minister Rudd is a Hansen disciple and much more:

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“I commend to you the following Australian climate, paleoclimate and Earth scientists to provide further elaboration of the science reported in my attached paper (Hansen et al., 2008):”

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On the top of the list of 7 Australian Scientists that Hansen recommended to Kevin Rudd is none other than Professor Barry Brook and Dr Michael Raupach, CSIRO.

He’s what Barry [pictured below] had to say about the report:

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“If you look at current government policy, then it doesn’t add up anyway, even before these figures,” he said.

“Cutting our emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 won’t do it, because we are already such high emitters per capita.

It has to be more like 90 per cent.”

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Did you get that - Brook calling for a 90% cut in Australian Emissions. That would be the ultimate exercise in national psychotic self harm.

This is the science that PM Kevin Rudd is being guided by. James Hansen is Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s scientific adviser on Climate Change and Professors Barry Brook and Michael Raupach of the CSIRO are Hansen’s field Lieutenants.

Meet the Global Warming Mafia and see how they manipulate the media and Australian politicians.

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Got a tip off, article or have you seen a video or item you’d like to be seen by the Agmates Community? If so please email it to us at news@agmates.com

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Murray Darling Basin chief executive Dr Wendy Craik are adamant that the drought and water crisis in the Murray Darling Basin is caused by climate change.

Rudd & Craik have both stated that the science proves the link between the current drought and global warming. But are they telling the truth?

Recently Rudd mocked opposition leader Brendan Nelson for saying that it had nothing to do with climate change.

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BRENDAN Nelson was yesterday accused of being “blissfully immune” to the effects of climate change after he said the crisis in the Murray-Darling Basin was not linked to global warming… “You need to get with the science on this,” the Prime Minister said. “Look at the technical report put together by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.”

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Dr Wendy Craik [pictured below] says the current drought affecting Australia’s largest river system has the fingerprints of climate change all over it. …

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“from the Bureau of Meteorology, the CSIRO and places, there are elements we’re seeing in the current water shortage availability that are relevant to climate change.

“The reduction in late winter and autumn rainfall is linked by the Bureau of Meteorology to the intensification of the subtropical ridge and that’s linked to global warming.

“There are features of the current phenomenon that we find ourselves in - water shortage, drought, whatever you want to call it - that are linked to climate change.

“CSIRO scientists … say this drought has the fingerprints all over it.”

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Agmates has on a number of occasions pointed out how dodgy the science is that Kevin Rudd and Wendy Craik are relying on.

Now Associate Professor Stewart Franks [pictured below] , a hydroclimatologist and an associate professor at the University of Newcastle School of Engineering, very clearly & precisely explains to Prime Minister Rudd and MDB chief Dr Wendy Craik what the science in fact does say:

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“IS the ongoing drought in the Murray-Darling Basin affected by climate change? The simple answer is that there is no evidence that CO2 has had any significant role…

In fact, the drought was caused by an entirely natural phenomenon: the 2002 El Nino event… In short, the drought was initiated by El Nino, protracted by further El Nino events and perhaps more importantly, the absence of substantial La Nina events…

A key claim is that the multiple occurrence of El Nino is a sign of climate change. This is speculative at best. Recent analysis showed the nine-year absence of La Nina was not unusual…”

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Fanks then goes onto deal with Dr Craik’s statements:

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“Indeed, Wendy Craik, the chief executive of the Murray Darling Basin Commission has stated that temperatures were warmer, leading to more evaporation and drier catchments.

This is disturbing to hear from the head of the MDBC, as it is completely at odds with the known physics of evaporation… [ Franks explains the science in detail here]

Craik is not alone in her desire to view CO2-induced climate change as proven and affecting the drought.

Numerous politicians, environmentalists and especially scientists have made spectacular leaps of faith in their adherence to the doctrine of climate change over recent years, too many to document here.”

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Then Stewart Franks delivers a stingy rebuttal to the Prime Minister:

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However, the most literally fantastic claim on climate change must go to Kevin Rudd, who has guaranteed that rainfall will decline over coming decades; one can only assume he’s based his view on deficient climate models and bad advice.

There is no direct evidence of CO2 impacts on the drought, nor is there any rational basis for predicting rainfall in 30 years time.

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Franks last statement will put a chill up the spine of each of us that live and work in rural and regional Australia.

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One just hopes that sensible and sustainable management from our leaders will enable struggling rural communities to weather the vagaries of climatic and political extremes.

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So folks, that is what the science actually says. So why does Kevin Rudd and his long serving Public Servant Dr Wendy Craik keep churning out this global warming alarmist hype?

Are Rudd & Craik deceiving the public or are they just hopelessly ill informed by the 100% Government funded CSIRO and BOM ?

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Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd yesterday launched an attack on opposition leader Brendan Nelson for saying the Murray Darling crisis is not the result of climate change:
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BRENDAN Nelson (pictured) was yesterday accused of being “blissfully immune” to the effects of climate change after he said the crisis in the Murray-Darling Basin was not linked to global warming.

The Opposition Leader told the ABC on Monday night:

“What’s happening at the moment in the Murray-Darling Basin is a consequence of two things: mismanagement of the entire system for almost 100 years and also the worst drought in 100 years.

And it is quite wrong for people to suggest that what we’re seeing at the moment is a consequence of climate change.”

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Dr Nelson is 100% correct. In fact average annual rainfall has increased according to the very source that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd quotes - the Bureau of Meteorology.

There is no way anybody can blame the drought in Southern Australia on Climate Change, why because its all happened before.

In his attack on Brendan Nelson the PM says:

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“You need to get with the science on this,” the Prime Minister [kevin Rudd pictured] said. “Look at the technical report put together by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.”

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In fact it is Prime Minister Rudd who needs to look at the science on this. The report that the PM is referring to predicts more frequent and horrific droughts.

Ecological niche modeler Dr David Stockwell, has checked the report’s modeling and assumptions and found them seriously flawed:

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“The most worrying failure was that simulations showed increases in droughted area over the last century in all regions, while the observed trends in drought decreased in five of the seven regions identified in the CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology report.

Therefore there is no credible basis for the claims of increasing frequency of Exceptional Circumstances declarations made in the report.

These results are consistent with other studies finding lack of adequate validation in global warming effects modeling, and lack of skill of climate models at the regional scale.”

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But wait Dr Stockwell is not the only person who says that the science that PM Rudd is relying on is dodgy.

Ian Castles, is the former head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics He’s also checked the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s controversial report on future droughts, that the Kevin Rudd wants Brendan Nelson to take a look at.

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The key finding of the report, as presented in the opening words of Australia’s Primary Industry Minister Tony Burke’s [ pitured] media release of 6 July, was that:

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‘Australia could experience drought twice as often and the events will be twice as severe within 20 to 30 years.‘ …

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What the Minister Tony Burke didn’t mention was that the report hadn’t been reviewed by outsiders….

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“As it happens, a peer-reviewed study of the prospective incidence of droughts in Australia has just been published.

The paper ‘Comparison of suitable drought indices for climate change impacts assessment over Australia towards resource management’ appears in the current (August 2008) edition of the International Journal of Climatology - the journal of the UK Royal Meteorological Society.

It is authored by four CSIRO scientists, three of whom were also authors of the BoM/CSIRO report (Freddie Mpelasoka, Kevin Hennessy and Bryson Bates) and two of whom were Coordinating Lead Authors of the IPCC’s 2007 Assessment Report (Kevin Hennessy and Roger Jones)…

In short, the simulations from the two models (of the CSIRO and the Canadian Climate Centre) suggest that in the medium-term (20-30 years) there will be a tendency towards a small increase in drought frequency in most of Australia, but with decreases in drought frequency in some areas.

Although the peer-reviewed study comes from several of the same scientists, it gives no support to the cries of alarm and disaster which have accompanied the release of the BoM/CSIRO report…

The impression given by the peer-reviewed paper is vastly different from that given in the report to the Australian Government.”

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Or would Mr Rudd like to read what Steve McIntyre had to say. A new scientific paper has tested 18 years of predictions by global warming models against real-world rainfall and temperature. The result found is that when compared to what has acually already happened the climate models are useless.

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“Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible,”

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However as demonstrated on the recent 60 Minutes program the Prime Minister has undying faith in the IPCC findings. He will let his ‘fact’ not be confused by any amount of new scientific data that does not confirm his beliefs.

Its now about ‘faith’ not science for PM Rudd.

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DAVID EVANS: I urge them [the Rudd Government] to look at the modern science, the evidence isn’t there. There is no evidence that carbon emissions cause a significant amount of global warming.

PM KEVIN RUDD: I am not, myself, a qualified scientist. I’m elected as Prime Minister of Australia to act on the basis of the considered scientific advice.

TARA BROWN: But it’s never too late to continue the debate is it?

PM KEVIN RUDD: Look at your kids in the eye tonight and ask yourself this question - “If we have this much evidence available to us now “on climate change and just refuse to act, “then what are the consequences for them?” The alternative, however, is to just stick your head in the sand and hope it all goes away.

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Brendan Nelson should be telling Kevin Rudd “You need to get with the science on this”.

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Back on the 11th of July the CSIRO released its “Fuel for Thought” study predicting that fuel prices could go to $8 a litre ($35.20 per gallon if your an American). This made the daily news headlines across Australia at the time.

“The report bases its worst case scenarios on the assumption the world will reach peak oil within the next five years. Peak oil is when oil production hits its maximum annual rate, then starts to decline and is no longer able to match demand.

If the decline in production was abrupt, petrol would hit $8 a litre by 2018, it says.”

At the time Oil was $147 a barrel. On the CSIRO’s prediction it would soar to $653 a barrel. Mind you the CSIRO was the only ‘reputable’ organization I know of that was predicting a price anywhere near that.

I know its less than a month later but hows the CSIRO’s credibility looking as oil slumps to $118 a barrel and bowser prices are back around $1.40 a litre?

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