Agmates

World finance makets are in melt down today. But here are some great numbers for Australias farmers, as at lunch time today:

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• The Aussie dollar was trading around 72 US cents, just 9 weeks ago it was 98cents. This will represent a massive boost for farm incomes.
• Oil was under $US89 a barrel, just 10 weeks ago it was $147 a barrel. Thats a 40% drop with no high dollar to distort the price. This should mean we will see fuel that was $1.70 a litre 10 weeks ago now back under a dollar a litre.
• The Reserve bank is expected to cut interest rates by half a percent today with more cuts expected to follow. It was just 12 weeks ago as variable rates edged up toward 10% that the Reserve was talking up more rate rises.

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The four major farm inputs are interest on debt, fuel, fertilizer & chemical (chemical & fertilizer prices are driven by oil prices). The cost all four major inputs has fallen dramatically. The dramatic fall in the dollar will drive export commodity prices up.

The Emissions Trading Scheme is dead and buried, or at least delayed indefinitely. Imposing an ETS on an economy is the perogative of only wealthy Western Countries.

The Government will have its hands full securing our economy in the face of a resources slow down that will follow a Western World recession, as surely as night follows day. It can ill afford to saddle the ecomony with the fiscal pressure of a go-it-alone carbon tax in industry and jobs.

The chances of the major emitting nations of the USA, China, Russia and India agreeing to restrict their economies will now be Slim to none, and Slim just let the building.

At last farmers had something to smile about. Its not all bad news. Unless of course farmers had borrowed up big to buy Shares or Urban Real Estate. Thats not likely.

Executive Director of Gene Ethics Bob Phelps [ pictured below] writes:

We have produced a map of Genetically Manipulated (GM) Roundup tolerant canola sites and GM canola depots in NSW & Victoria. Click on the link to see the maps.

We have published these maps today with information gleaned from media reports. GM canola pollen and seed dispersal threaten many rural industries with gene contamination.

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Our map will help protect GM-free grain growers, beekeepers and harvesters from GM contamination. Only one in a thousand farmers is growing GM canola this year, but they pose an unacceptable risk of GM contamination to all other farmers, rural industries, local government and shoppers.

Monsanto has grossly inflated the scale of GM plantings and the number of GM farmers to draw others into buying its patented seed next year. GM canola contamination is inevitable if we don’t act to stop it now as the GM giants are determined to make all NSW and Victorian canola GM as soon as possible.

States acknowledged that GM segregation and containment are impossible when they set a 0.5% threshold for ‘accidental’ GM contamination in seed for planting, and 0.9% in harvested grain.

It’s impossible to stop the spread of canola seed during windrowing, harvest and transport, with at least 2.5 million seeds per hectare and they can lie dormant for up to ten years before germinating.

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In my previous article $5 billion Potential in farming from Biosequestration in soil, pasture and trees. I pointed out that the Australian government needed to look at the huge potential of biosequestration on our rangelands to offset carbon emissions.

I called for more funding for research and for vigoursous lobbying in the lead up to the next Climate Conference in Copenhagen in 2009.

Grant Molloy of Dairy Park between Bathurst and Cowra NSW has forwarded this email from fellow grazier and Holistic Management Educator Bruce Ward.

It turns out that Tim Flannery is actively championing farmers causes in both of the areas I put forward. This is particularly relevant in that Tim is the Chair of Australia’s Copenhagen Committee. Grant writes:

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“This email was sent to me today from Bruce Ward Holistic Management educator, the bloke that educated myself.

The section of the interview relevant to farmers ( I think it is all relevant) starts at 34 minutes. This is a positive that we should focus on, particularly considering the carbon emission issues that we face are nearly over whelming, for some.

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I have listened to the interview and I agree with Grant that is tremendous. Goes for about 50minutes. Heres the email from Bruce [ pictured ]. Link to the Audio is at the bottom. Click on Listen now, Like I did, you’ll learn a lot.

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Professor Ross Garnaut in his final climate change report does see a silver lining for farmers and rural communities. The potential revenue for biosequestration for farmers at a carbon price of $20 a tonne is $5 billion dollars a year.

Opposition climate change spokesperson Greg Hunt [ pictured] is a biosequestration enthusiast:

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“We have been talking of a conservative target of 60 to 80 million tonnes a year of natural sequestration, he says.

Garnaut has gone for a bolder figure of 250 million tonnes from a combination of soils, pastures, woodlands and forests.

I don’t think that is outrageous or unreasonable in terms of its potential for Australia. At a carbon price of $10 a tonne, that is $2.5 billion going to rural Australia each year.”

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One of the major stumbling blocks for Australian farmers to realize this potential is that the Kyoto protocol does not recognize carbon sequestration from soils, pasture, woodland or forests established pre- 1990.

The second impediment is a globally accepted accounting method for sequestration by soils and pasture.

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A Journeyman Film. In the drought of 2002-2003 Kangaroos were is plague proportion in Western NSW.

This is a great short film shot at Oxley Station in the Macquarie Marshes .

Note I’ve had trouble with getting this to play. If it won’t click here to watch it.

Agmates Video Gallery

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Todays Agamtes “Rooted” Article on Crikey

Greens Working to Help Farmers, Rural & Regional Communities Survive and Thrive.

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In todays article we thank Greens Senator Christine Milne for working for Farmers, Rural and Regional Australians. Having said that, have a look at what “Raving Alarmist” Bob Brown is saying in todays media.

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“The alternative-waiting for a lead from the rest of the world-will sacrifice the Great Barrier Reef, Ningaloo Reef, Kakadu and the Australian Alps in the short term, and threatens a 10-metre rise in sea levels, obliterating the Sydney Opera House foyer, Melbourne’s Docklands, Hobart’s Salamanca Place and the current habitat of millions of Australians.”

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Read the whole article on Crikey

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Professor Ross Garnaut has said that it is only a global solution that will have any impact global warming.

Now finally someone is talking some sense.

Opposition Emissions Trading Scheme spokesman Andrew Robb [ pictured below] is calling for the emissions trading scheme to be delayed for two years.

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The meltdown had to be taken into account. ”It’s going to discourage other countries around the world, they’re going to look at other priorities, and it’s going to put pressure on the speed with which they tackle climate change,” he said.

The Government should also wait for the result of world climate talks in Copenhagen in late 2009.

Mr Robb reiterated the Opposition’s policy that emissions trading should start in ”2012 at the latest”.

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Kevin Rudd should take his Emissions Trading Scheme to next federal election due in 2010. Like former Prime Minister John Howard did with the GST he should give the Australian public the opportunity to decide if we want it or not.

Doing that would allow the Australian public to have a good look at the full costs and implications of the scheme. I doubt the Rudd government would have the courage to do that.

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Terry McCrann is certain that the Global Financial Crisis will ensure that Kevin Rudds / Ross Garnaut’s emissions trading scheme will not eventuate in 2010.

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“BEAUTIFUL. The release of the Garnaut report could not have been better timed. It was dead, dead, dead, before it hit the table.

The dark greens and all the climate carpetbaggers and main-chancers who have sprouted like weeds at the prospect of sharing in the 21st century theological rents will come to look back wistfully at his - original - modest emission reduction targets.”

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After reading the Garnaut report Terry, I can tell you that almost everybody in Rural & Regional Australia hopes your right.

Seems that the specter of a recession in Europe is causing more than a few members of the European Union to also have second thoughts.

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“Poland has joined Germany in calling for industry exemptions to EU climate rules as a recession in Europe’s major economies is casting doubts on whether Brussels will be able to push through its ambitious CO2 reduction programme.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that her government “could not support the destruction of German jobs through an ill-advised climate policy”, the Financial Times reported.”

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Heres Hoping, that it is dead, at least until after Copenhagen in December 2009 when we can see if the big emitters are willing to act.
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While Australia is seriously contemplating national psychotic self harm - in the form of an Emissions Trade Scheme, the Brazilians are tearing down the Amazon forest at a frantic pace.

Amazon destruction jumped 228 per cent in August compared with the same month a year ago, according to a report from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research.

About 760sq km of the Amazon was destroyed last month, compared with 230sq km in August 2007.

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A recent report showed that Tropical deforestation in Latin America, Asia and Africa accounted for 15% of global CO2 emissions last year, with deforestation in Latin America accounting for 6% or 600 million tonnes. Australia accounts for 1.3% of global emissions.

So we’ll just keep kidding ourselves that by reducing our livestock numbers by 7 million Cattle and 35 million sheep and changing our diet to eating Skippy the national icon we will save the world.

Meanwhile its business as usual for Countries like Brazil, China, USA, Russia, India.

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Unless global consensus on reducing CO2 emissions is reached ordinary Australian’s financial sacrifice made under an Emissions Trading Scheme is a ‘mug punt’.

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“Let’s face the reality - the only solution will be a global solution,” [sic Garnaut] he told ABC radio.

Australia could cut emissions to zero, could do it tomorrow - it couldn’t actually do it, but if it did do it - it would have almost no effect on global warming.

If we did ourselves great damage in the process we would become an example to the world of how foolish it is (to) mitigate.”

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The best estimate I can find at the moment is that the ETS will net the federal Government $5 billion dollars revenue even after the petrol rebate is paid.

Lets put it in the simplest terms. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is willing to bet $5 billion dollars of tax payers money in the first year (2010) that the world will reach agreement in Copenhagen in December 2009. Even Garnaut admits an agreement is “highly unlikely”.

If there is no agreement reached, the Australian Tax payer will pay $5 billion each year plus a proposed 4% increase plus CPI each and every year after that.

Expand that out to the year 2020 and if no global agreement has been reached to curb the emissions of the USA, China, India and Russia, Australians will have paid out approx $60 billion dollars to reduce global temperatures by ZERO.

So we are not far from betting $5 billion on something that we don’t believe will happen and as a result have zero affect on Global Warming. I don’t bet on the horses, but even I can spot a Mug Punter.

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Got a tip off, article or have you seen a video or item you’d like to be seen by the Agmates Community? If so please email it to us at news@agmates.com