Agmates

Journalist Terry McCrann poses some serious questions about Australian Treasury’s modelling of the economic impact of the emissions trading scheme.

OH DEAR. Two weeks ago, I wrote that Treasury had shredded its credibility. It appears I was being too generous.

And one of his key right-hand men, David Gruen, revealed that the complex economic modelling, which has backed the Rudd Government’s aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy, was based on assumptions so simplistic — and arguably just wrong — that they would be embarrassing coming from a first-year undergraduate in economics.

McCrann goes on to question the ‘first mover’ principal so often touted by Treasury and the Rudd government.

The bigger worry in the “quality” of such fundamentally important treasury advice is Gruen’s contention — and therefore a core assumption in the modelling — is of a first-mover advantage.

“Economies that defer action face higher long-term costs. This is because more emission-intensive infrastructure is locked in place in the meantime,” he said.

I doubt that I’ve read a more naive unknowing sentence in years. It’s as if Gruen has travelled through the last three decades with his eyes and mind shut.

In a world of such rapid technological change, you are far more likely to see the exact opposite. Early movers locking-in inefficient early-stage infrastructure. Think the “new energy” version of IBM main-frame computers for example.

Hasn’t Gruen heard of the “free-rider principle”? Let others spend the billions of dollars developing the “new energy” — assuming the necessary can-opener can be found.

For a very contextual example look at those useless and inefficient wind farms. Does Gruen really believe his has seen the future in their lazy rotations?

The Emissions Trading scheme will give Australia ‘first mover’ advantage straight into the world of tariffs & import quotas.

He claims that the energy switch is analogous to the tariff experience. He’s right, but he gets it exactly wrong. Placing artificial restrictions on carbon energy is like quotas on imports. Artificially boosting the price of carbon energy is like a tariff on imports.

In effect, we have Treasury mindlessly proposing that we go back to the energy equivalent of our tariff and import quota past. And doesn’t even have a clue what it’s doing.

We, and I do mean we, should be worried, seriously worried.

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This is really good. I love this song and to listen to it watching one of the greatest athletes the world has ever seen is perfect.

Michael Jordan really could fly.

Agmates Music Gallery

Darling of the left wing media Clive Hamilton [pictured] is not a happy chappy..

The growing strength of the independent online media like Agmates really annoys him.

In an article on Crikey.com (subsribers only, so sorry no link) Hamilton attacks those of us that dared point out that:

… outrageous attack on IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri accusing him of wilfully misleading the public by ignoring evidence that average global temperatures have plateaued in recent years.

In the days before independent online media like Agmates, Left winged academics like Hamilton were quoted virtually unchallenged by the mainstream media. He’s clearly upset that those times have changed.

“Duffy’s article recycled uncritically the latest piece of denialist clap-trap circulating on the internet and occasionally breaking in to the serious press.

It follows a pattern whereby a denialist somewhere notices an apparent contradiction in the mainstream science, inserts a crowbar into the crack then tries to bring down the climate science edifice.

Although the real scientists soon point out the error the clap-trap continues to circulate, confusing the public and giving the impression that scientists cannot makes up their minds.”

What’s the world coming to Clive? Oh for the good old days when only Clive’s side of the story made it into the ’serious press’.

We can’t tolerate independent media questioning the global warming hysteria can we Clive? We can’t allow proper debate of the issues can we Clive? Worst of all we can’t allow voices of dissent, can we Clive?

Clive has been the darling of the left winged mainstream media for many years with his anti-capitalism and anti-religious views.

Surely Clive would be a champion of free speech. From reading his comments above it would appear not.

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At last the Australians Broadcasting Corporation, the Australian Tax payers TV has taken its first tentative step toward braodcasting some balance in the Global Warning Debate.

TICKY FULLERTON, PRESENTER: There’s another voice raising alarm at the impact of emissions trading on the resource sector.

Professor Ian Plimer is one of the few scientists roundly pooh poohing the theory of human induced climate change. He is a geologist, not a climatologist who argues that actual events in the earth’s history tells us far more than climate models of the future…..

The interviewed was screened at about 11pm on a Tuesday night, but its a start. Interviewer Ticky Fullerton wants to know how the media and the government could have it so wrong.

TICKY FULLERTON: You are a greenhouse heretic, if I may say so. How can so many governments and the media have got it wrong?

IAN PLIMER: Well heretic is quite correct. That’s a religious word and that’s what we’re dealing with- a modern political religion.

Governments do not seem to understand that the UN is a political organisation and there were scientists who were seeking fame and fortune, there’s not much money around, and if you can get on that bandwagon, then you can have yourself funded and have a great party frightening people witless.

It seems to come as a complete surprise to Fullerton that there are a large number of skeptics in the community who agree with Plimer. Granted she would not have met any hanging around the ABC cafeteria or water coolers.

TICKY FULLERTON: …. what I am interested in this is the talk that you gave last week to the Sydney Mining Club.

What sort of response did you get?

IAN PLIMER: Well I had a phenomenal response. It was overbooked, people couldn’t come in, I’m getting a couple of hundred emails a day as a result of it.

TICKY FULLERTON: Is the scepticism genuine or is this also about economic self interest.

IAN PLIMER: Well I can’t speak for others but scepticism is an integral part of science and when we have sceptical views regarded pejoratively then I think we’re abandoning science.

And I would argue that the current campaign is one that has abandoned science and has taken on the place of socialism and a new type of religion.

Whilst the interview was an eye opening experience for presenter Ticky Fullerton, lets hope its the start of a shift in the ABC’s coverage of the issue which up to now has been totally biased toward the global warming hysteria brigade.

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Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is not having a good trot.

His latest head ache comes from the Labor State Governments who have done a few sums of their own and worked out …. ‘hang on a minute this emissions trading scheme is going to hurt our states economies’.

PREMIERS are in revolt over Kevin Rudd’s plans for an emissions trading scheme, urging changes to the proposed formulas for compensating export industries to ensure they are not pushed offshore.

The premiers of South Australia and Tasmania have written to the Prime Minister raising specific concerns about the design of the scheme, its impact on major industries and expressing fears that the ETS will spark major losses of jobs and revenue.

Queensland, Victoria and the West Australian Liberal Government have raised concerns about the effects on emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries.

As more and more politicians and people work out that it is actually real people who will pay for an emissions trading scheme, one that won’t stop one iota of warming, this will get harder and harder for Kevin Rudd & his Labor Government.

You see if business can’t pass on the cost to the customer they will either close down and or leave the country. It’s the consumer ( you and me) who will pay, not business.

As more people start to work that one out, the Rudd government will be in trouble at the next election and may well face the same fate as former New Zealand Labor Prime Minister Helen Clark.

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G’day Agmates members.

Our newsletter went out yesterday with a link to an article on the US presidential election. There were 2 videos, the first a brilliant video of Martin Luther King Jr’s famous ‘I have a dream’ speeech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in August 1963.

The second was a video of Barack Obama’s elction night victory speech which has been hailed as the greatest ever of any President Elect.

The link to the Obama speech was broken. I have replaced it with 2 new videos (Part1& Part 2). Here is the link to the article.

I’d suggest any one with children should sit them down and watch the King speech and then the Obama speech. It would be a great history lesson for them. One of hope and the power of the human spirit.

(Thanks to Agmates David & Wendy)

In what is tremendous news for the Australian Cattle Industry North Queensland Cattleman Greg Brown has been elected president of Australia’s peak beef industry body, Cattle Council of Australia.

Photo Thanks to Lisa Yorkston AgForce: Left to right - George Bloomfield, Atherton, ( Now Cattle Council of Australia President) Greg Brown “Meadowbank” Mt Garnet and Stephen Batt “Jucani Park” Upper Barron in the paddock on George’s property on the Kennedy Highway during a beef tour in 2006.

Agmates is very excited about the appointment. Greg is a down to earth producer who has a good handle on the Australian cattle industry as a whole. He is easy to talk too, very practical and straight forward in his thoughts and views on the industry.

I could not personally think of a better man to represent beef producers at the highest levels of policy development. There’s a whole lot of beef in Greg and very little Bullshit.

In my dealings with Greg, I’ve only ever found him to one of those rare individuals who is not only a successful beef producer, but is also prepared to devote his scarce spare time and abundant energy into making it a better industry for all.

Greg has worked tirelessly as Cattle President of AgForce and he has Agmates full support in his continuing efforts to securing a profitable and sustainable beef industry for all Australian beef producers.

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QLD Premier Anna Bligh has revealed that her government uses tax payers money to employ 640 media spin doctors.

The Premier last night released figures showing the government employed 640 people in media, communications, graphic design, marketing and advertising.

Premier Bligh only released the figures after continued pressure from LNP leader Lawrence Springborg.

ANNA Bligh has defended the number of State Government communications staff, saying they are necessary for circulating important safety messages.

When you break the numbers down tax payers are paying for 1 spin doctor per 6,200 Queenslander’s. If they are paid the average wage of $54,000 per year plus super, QLD tax payers are paying $37,670,400 in wages alone each year for Bligh’s Labor media propaganda machine.

Whats the safety message Anna. Vote Labor or else?

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Update 2.32pm, 10th November.

LNP child safety spokeswoman Jann Stuckey writes:

Child safety Minister Margaret Keech was obviously more interested in spin than addressing the worst staff attrition rate in the government.

Her Department employs a media/pr team of 10, including a director, a media manager, a principal media officer, two senior media officers, two senior communications officers and two communications officers, which with salaries and on-costs would easily run to a million dollars-plus.

How can the Minister and this Labor Government justify spending of this scale, when 35 per cent of Child Safety staff resigned last year. That’s 35 per cent, yet during that time the Department’s media unit grew from seven to 10.

Surely a million dollars would be better invested in the improvement of pay and conditions for frontline child safety officers, who, I’m informed, have impossible caseloads, in some instances as high as 60 vulnerable, at-risk children.

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Our current Australian anti-farmer policies coupled with a population that grows by 1 person net each 1.3 seconds will lead us to a point within 40 years where we will be a net importer of food. As the world population grows by another 2.3 billion people, food in Australia will indeed become a scarce resource.

During the past 8 years just on 11,000 Australian farmers have left the land. Today just 130,000 farmers or 0.6% of the population not only feed 21.5 million Australians but export enough food to feed double that number.

Australia is one of the world’s major agriculture exporters not because we are a major producer on a world scale, but because we have a small population. Our population is exploding whilst each day our policy makers work hard at reducing the number of farmers and their capacity to produce, in the name of ‘free trade’ and the environment.

As the Australian anti-farmer Federal and State Labour governments continue with policies that shrink our farming sector, world experts are urging them to pour money into ag & water research to avoid world wide food shortages and civil unrest.

THE director-general of the International Water Management Institute, Colin Chartres, has warned that Australia, along with the other developed nations, needs to invest more in research into agriculture and water management and in international aid.

The Rudd government is doing the exact opposite with huge cuts to CSIRO ag research funding including the closing of a number of world renown research facilities.

One of the first things the new Ag Minister Tony Burke did in coming to power 12 months ago was to scrap the very successful Farmbiz program which subsidized training and ongoing resource management education for farmers.

The QLD Labor government has followed up with an announcement it will close more Department of Primary Industry research facilities in that state.

Chartres says the food crisis of the past year was an important warning sign. “We have to heed the warning. Otherwise the ultimate outcome is, if we have millions of people starving in the developing world, much more social unrest, much more fertile ground for terrorists and extremists and the whole world becomes a lot less safe.

There is whole lot standing on it in terms of social security, as well as food security.”

(more…)

The Labour party has been resoundingly dumped by New Zealand Voters after almost a decade in office.

Sweeping to power with 59 seats and 45% of the vote, the National Party reached the threshold it needs with backing from the Act Party, which has five seats, and UnitedFuture’s Peter Dunne with his one seat.

New Prime Minister elect John Key has nominated Tax Cuts, Infrastructure spending, Broad Band and a Cap on the number of public servants as his governments main priorities. No mention of Climate Change.

Our friend Rodney Hide (an Agmates “Onya Award” Winner) and his Act party will form a National party led coalition government.

Rodney Hide is celebrating after being returned as the MP for the Auckland seat of Epsom, and will hold negotiations to form part of a National-led government.

There will be interesting times ahead as Hide and the ACT party bitterly opposed the introduction of NZ’s emissions trading scheme.

Ousted PM Helen Clarke has blamed part of their loss on the fact that the Greens did not perform anywhere near as well as expected.

The Greens are back with two more MPs after Saturday’s election, but yet again the environmental party is shut out of government.

Yet that is hardly a surprise as its hard to convince voters of the global warming hype when you have just come out of a very cold winter.

Snow has fallen in parts of the central and lower North Island which have not seen such falls for years.

We are looking forward to some interesting times ahead for our friends across ‘the ditch’. Here is a video of Rodney Hide being interviewed about his views on Global Warming and New Zealands emissions trading scheme. You have to get past about 1m of ads to get to it but it is worth watching.

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