The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has been instrumental in working with CSIRO to build climate models to predict what our climate will be like in 50-100 years time.
It is these predictions on which Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has based his decision to fight climate change with an emissions trading scheme aka. carbon tax.
Back on the 26th of September we ran an article that showed the BOM’s prediction for rainfall and temperature for just the next 3 months (not 50 years).
Lets have a look how accurate they were.
The first was the probability of exceeding mediam rainfall (1961-1990) between October and December 2008.
Map Source: Bureau Meteorology.
Now here is the Map of where the rain actually fell for that 3 month period.
Map Source: Bureau Meteorology
You’d have to say, they were not even close.
Now for the temperature prediction. The probability of exceeding average maximum temperatures ( again based on the average maximum from 1961-1990) between October and December.
And bloody hell they were predicting it would be hot.
Map Source: Bureau Meteorology
Now the results for the 3 months have not been posted yet, but here is the first month of Summer – December.
Map Source: Bureau Meteorology.
See the Green, that’s 1-3 degrees Celsius below the average. Thank God for Global warming or we’d be freezing to death – in summer.
The BOM can’t get anywhere near right with their 3 month predictions, but we’ll wreck our economy with an emissions trading scheme based on the Bureau’s 50-100 year predictions.
Apparently we are to believe that while they are hopeless at knowing what the weather will do right now, they are reliable with predictions that are 50-100 years into the future.
It would be ridiculous for anybody to believe that, except if your Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd who obviously finds it perfectly plausible.
Have Your say.
Tags: BOM, CO2, CSIRO, Emissions Trading Scheme, ETS, Global Warming, Kevin Rudd
