Unless global consensus on reducing CO2 emissions is reached ordinary Australian’s financial sacrifice made under an Emissions Trading Scheme is a ‘mug punt’.
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“Let’s face the reality – the only solution will be a global solution,” [sic Garnaut] he told ABC radio.
Australia could cut emissions to zero, could do it tomorrow – it couldn’t actually do it, but if it did do it – it would have almost no effect on global warming.
If we did ourselves great damage in the process we would become an example to the world of how foolish it is (to) mitigate.”
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The best estimate I can find at the moment is that the ETS will net the federal Government $5 billion dollars revenue even after the petrol rebate is paid.
Lets put it in the simplest terms. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is willing to bet $5 billion dollars of tax payers money in the first year (2010) that the world will reach agreement in Copenhagen in December 2009. Even Garnaut admits an agreement is “highly unlikely”.
If there is no agreement reached, the Australian Tax payer will pay $5 billion each year plus a proposed 4% increase plus CPI each and every year after that.
Expand that out to the year 2020 and if no global agreement has been reached to curb the emissions of the USA, China, India and Russia, Australians will have paid out approx $60 billion dollars to reduce global temperatures by ZERO.
So we are not far from betting $5 billion on something that we don’t believe will happen and as a result have zero affect on Global Warming. I don’t bet on the horses, but even I can spot a Mug Punter.
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