Global warming alarmists claim that the Arctic Polar ice melt is concrete evidence that man-made global warming is occuring.
At the start of this years thaw here is what the credible purveyors of truth at World Wildlife Fund predicted was / would happen this year.
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On April 24 the World Wildife Fund (WWF), another body keen to keep the warmist flag flying, published a study warning that Arctic sea ice was melting so fast that it may soon reach a “tipping point” where “irreversible change” takes place.
This was based on last September’s data, showing ice cover having shrunk over six months from 13 million square kilometres to just 3 million.
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Of course what the WWF didn’t say was that a month earlier in March the ice had already recovered to 14m sq kilometres.
Well this years arctic melt season is finished, so we’ll see how the predictions of the global warming crew have fared. But we won’t quote the usually alarmist BS that comes from self interest groups like WWF, lets go straight to the scientific experts in Arctic ice the prestigious National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC):
Here was their prediction -
With survival rates similar to those in 2007, the minimum for the 2008 season would be only 2.22 million square kilometers (0.86 million square miles). By comparison the record low extent, set last September, was 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles).
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So hence based on that data, folks like WWF have been predicting that the Arctic would be ice free this summer. So what actually did happen.
Remember if the planet is warming the way science is modeling it, we should have seen some where between last years record low (bear in mind record low means since 1979) 4.28 million square kilometres and the NSIDC prediction of 2.22 million square kilometres that sent the AWG’ers into a frenzy at the start of the season.
Melt Season Over - Arctic Sea Ice up 9.4%
Yes thats right folks Arctic sea ice covered increased by 390,000 square kilometres over last year. To put that in perspective thats an area equal to all of Tasmania, all of Victoria and about 10% of NSW.
Oops, the models in fact were out by at a maximum 2,24 million square kilometres. Thats roughly the area of Western Australia. But have a look at how the good scientists at NSIDC report the result. One has to look after ones research funding after all.
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The Arctic sea ice cover appears to have reached its minimum extent for the year, the second-lowest extent recorded since the dawn of the satellite era. While above the record minimum set on September 16, 2007, this year further reinforces the strong negative trend in summertime ice extent observed over the past thirty years.
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Hey folks just remember that is the second lowest ever with “ever” being 1979 or just 29 years ago. It is a known fact that there have been a number of occassions in past history when there has been far less Arctic ice.
Now for the absolute prize, remember the Arctic is melting because we humans are causing global warming with our rampant pumping of CO2 into the atmosphere.
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Despite overall cooler summer temperatures, the 2008 minimum extent is only 390,000 square kilometers (150,000 square miles), or 9.4%, more than the record-setting 2007 minimum. The 2008 minimum extent is 15.0% less than the next-lowest minimum extent set in 2005 and 33.1% less than the average minimum extent from 1979 to 2000.
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The Arctic Ice Melt is touted by global warming alarmists as the absolute proof / evidence that man made global warming is happening.
Really??? No wonder a few of us are “Skeptical”.
(thanks to readers Sally, Peter & Jane)
Have your Say!
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Tags: Arctic Polar Ice, CO2, Global Warming, World Wildlife Fund, WWF
Look you are right… organisations like the WWF (bless their cotton socks) would happily sieze on the most tenuous of claims to put out a press release
I did see one positive today … ocean warming may help the Grey Nurse Shark… CHRIST!!!!!
You have to worry about some of these scientists… I mean how someone can say that (if real) global warming would be good because it helps an endangered shark, ignoring all the negatives of a rise of say 3 degrees C.
Even had the cheek to suggest that it was not a solution - it just bought them some time… DUH!!!!
I tell you what if temps rise 3degC there will be no bloody money for Grey Nurse Shark research buddy!!!
Cheers Matt,
Gotta run - won’t be back till tomorrow. Talk some more then.
Cheers mate - have a good evening
Ahh samnit just deleted a post somewhow!
Summary: it is wrong in your article to say that NSIDC predicted 2.22 mill sqm. NSIDC presented a range of scenarios, with 2.22 mill being a “what if” the following assumptions hold true and the melt is similar to 2007. It quoted a wide range of models, including one that said there was only a 59% chance of 2008 beating the 2007 record.
If the media wants to misrepresent this to make a good story then what can the NSIDC do about it? I guess you are just evening the ledger by mis-represnting them the other way…
You should read you “natural variations in climate” alongside “” - a nice little article on Booker, the author of your link.
Hey Matt,
I’m pleased to see that you are not critical of me for doing what almost every, nah maybe every AWG’er did with NSIDC figures.
What’s the saying:
“Live by the sword, you die by the sword”.
I know your a middle of the roader kinda green, I like that about you, but the AWG’ers have had a lot riding on “a good result” out of this years Arctic melt(ie if it had been ice free)
Just could not resist the urge to stick it into them. LOL.
Of course it is 100% logical to take this view of the data, rather than the one that the NSIDC takes that is “this year further reinforces the strong negative trend in summertime ice extent observed over the past thirty years.”
You even bolded that bit Steve, so I’m surprised you missed it…
Matt,
Honestly if you and others can give a 30 year time span in the 4 1/2 million years of earth climate any credulity, - really.
But hang on they do (the alarmist that is - if we have a hot day its because of climate change, but according to the AWG alarmists if we get a whole decade where it does not warm its “natural variations in climate”
“Don’t worry it might cool until 2015 - but boy it’s going to get hot after that” - I think is the quote from the article.
Are you telling me “I’ve just got to believe”
Matt the NSIDC was out in their prediction by an area the size of the Whole of Western Australia. Wow.
Not an inconsequential area of land.
If you and I were that far out in a forecasted outcome, we just might be looking for a new career?
A great informative site for sea ice cover both Arctic and Antarctic is Cryosphere:
Half way down the page is a comparison between any two dates within the period 1979 - 2008, of the sea ice cover for the Arctic. Just pop in the date in one box and another in the alternate and it will update.
Should give you all something to play with while the Alarmists are telling us the ice is melting and we should all go and watch “The Day after Tomorrow” so we know how to cope with the rising tide. Ho Hum.
Good thread guys, shows that Agmates has thinkers, not just believers amongst it’s readers.