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With a record 14 million hectares planted under wheat and excellent spring rain in central/southern QLD and Northern NSW some analyst are predicting a record Australian wheat harvest. This would be in line with the predictions of a record global grain harvest.
With just average rainfall until harvest given the record area planted Australia could produce a record wheat crop of over 26.1 million metric tons which was produced in off 13.1 million hectares in 2003.
Justin Smirk, a senior agribusiness economist at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC.AU), had earlier suggested Australia could produce a record wheat crop given the large area planted.
Early spring rainfall of 25-80mm in southern & central Queensland means a bumper crop is virtually assured. The cold August put it a little behind but growers are quietly confident.
Neighboring northern & central New South Wales also received great rainfall with large areas receiving 50 mm-100 mm, according to official data.
The rainfall has also boosted the outlook for summer crops. It is expected that a lot of sorghum will be planted on the excellent early spring rain as generally speaking the early crops are generally the best sorghum crops.
The southern half of New South Wales is still looking for a good drink.
Wide spread good rainfall in Victoria over the last 10 days see wheat and other winter crops looking pretty healthy going into the spring the Victoria state’s Department of Primary Industries reported (DPI) in its monthly roundup issued last Friday.
The report said the rain had freshened the crops, but the outlook is uncertain as rain will be needed each week to keep up with increasing crop water use in the high-growth spring period.
The South Australian Department of Primary Industries (DPI) in its report released last Thursday said crops in South Australia had been kicked along by good rains in July and August.
South Australian analysts have upped the states forecast wheat production by 13% from a month ago to 3.26 million tons. This would be a 39% on actual output last year, according to the DPI report.
Hmmm …. interesting - looking at the possibility of a record wheat harvest when climate change is suppose to be devastating our agricultural industry. Remember all the talk that we’d have to abandon agriculture in the Southern part of Australia and move it too the wet tropics because of crippling droughts?
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Have your Say!
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Its about time we farmers had a go - we are quietly very confident of better than average crops.
We have been slugged by years of drought and drought feeding, low prices, high costs, NLIS, GST ,tree clearing laws, de-regulation of ag industries , horse flu , looked down upon for staying in the bush, loss of services and towns, shortage of labour and a whole host of things bringing us to our knees.
Hopefully we can get our debt down with a very good wheat crop to set the next generation up - many young people are again interested in agriculture.
Bravo Von,
Could not have said it better myself. Well said.
I would not get too excited if a bumper crop does come in because in the new deregulated environment the traders and end users will have a field day and pick us off as they require grain.
We will miss the National Pool which had been in existence for over 60 years and will be forced into storing grain and waiting for a decent price or offer with no guarantee that either will eventuate.
If you do not believe me listen to these consultants that said that deregulation would be a fun time for all and are now warning growers of the inherent shortcomings.
Amazingly they are suggesting that growers being forced to store grain will not have an adverse affect on their viability or the size of future plantings.
It is important to remember that AWB could take up to 18 months to sell a large crop-I maintain that a big crop in the new environment will take even longer to dispose of.
My question is as follows- “how could a grower’s planting intentions not be affected if he still had a substantial proportion of his crop at sowing time?”
If that is not bad enough consider the scenario where he might still hold stocks at the following year’s harvest period from the previous season.