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Arctic Ices Up as Global Warming Alarmists Arguments Crumble

The meltdown of Artic sea ice is touted by global warming alarmists as the ‘canary in the coal mine’.

Like the discredited ‘hockey stick’ theory last years record arctic melt saw alarmist all over the world using it as proof positive that we were all doomed unless we cut global carbon emissions.

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Friday 27th June 2008 - The North Pole may be briefly ice-free by September as global warming melts away Arctic sea ice, according to scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

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The center’s senior research scientist, Mark Serreze said at the time:

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I think we understand the physics behind this pretty well,” he said. “We’ve known for at least 30 years, from our earliest climate models, that it’s the Arctic where we’d see the first signs of global warming.

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Actually it turns out Mark and his colleagues don’t have it figured out at all. August marks the end of this seasons Arctic Melt and what do you know the sea ice has grown by 700,000 square kilometres or twice the size of Germany.

image of arctic sea ice
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“The data is for August 2008 and indicates a total sea ice area of six million square kilometers. Ice extent for the same month in 2007 covered 5.3 million square kilometers, a historic low.

Earlier this year, media accounts were rife with predictions that this year would again see a new record. Instead, the Arctic has seen a gain of about thirteen percent.

William Chapman, a researcher with the Arctic Climate Research Center at the University of Illinois, tells DailyTech that this year the Arctic was “definitely colder” than 2007. Chapman also says part of the reason for the large ice loss in 2007 was strong winds from Siberia, which affect both ice formation and drift, forcing ice into warmer waters where it melts.”

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So its getting colder in the Arctic and Antarctic yet CO2 levels rose again this year. The hysteria about human induced Global Warming is becoming more indefensible each year.

Yet the Australian and New Zealand governments are embarking on Carbon Emissions Reductions Schemes that will hurt our economies and make our nations poorer all to save the planet - from what?

(thanks to Agmates reader Leonard)

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10 Comments »

Comment by MattB Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-04 13:29:20

Or you could go to a reputable science site:
Brave New Climate
or NSIDC
Or: Real Climate

where there is a good discussion from both sides at the bottom (it gets scientific).

 
Comment by MattB Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-04 13:36:02

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ takes you to the views of the people who publish the data used in the Agmates article…

And they said on August 26: that there were still several weeks of melt left and:

“Update 9:15 am MT August 27:

Arctic sea ice extent on August 26 was 5.26 million square kilometers (2.03 million square miles), a decline of 2.06 million square kilometers (795,000 square miles) since the beginning of the month.

Extent is now within 430,000 square kilometers (166,000 square miles) of last year’s value on the same date and is 1.97 million square kilometers (760,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.

Comment by Agmates Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-04 16:06:25

G’day Matt,

I’ve checked all of your links and cannot find one place where they refute that the sea ice melt is in fact greater than last year.

Even on the link above to NSIDC the graph and indeed your text shows the melt is clearly less. I’ll try to include the graph below.
Artic Sea Ice Melt

The point is according to the alarmists we were supposed to see so much more ice disappear this year due to global warming that the Arctic would be practically ice free. - This is clearly not the case.

I really thought the suggestion on your mates Barry’s blog that the reason the planet is cooling is because the North Pole is melting - LOL.

 
 
Comment by MattB Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-04 16:25:51

But the ice melt has not finished yet, and has since dropped from 700,000km2 bigger to 400,000km2 bigger.

But mostly the links to NSDIC (who we are both referenceing) show that 2008 being AT BEST the 2nd worst year for arctic sea ice coverage hardly amounts to “human induced Global Warming” “becoming more indefensible each year”. as stated by the blog post.

The NSDIC alreasdy states that 2006 had more ice than 2005… so you could use that as “proof: if you liked.

Unless of course you are happy for me to post here the next time one year has lower rainfall than the last that it is proof of global warming… or higher temperature, or less ice?

You just can’t look at that graph “Arctic Sea Ice Extent” and draw the conlusions you have… I mean 2005 and 2007 were the lowest levels ever… dows that mean the suggestion the earth has been cooling since 1998 is disproven? I doub’t you’d let me assume that from the graph would you?

An argument levelled at non-sceptics is that we fall for science that backs up our conclusions without applying due-dilligence… and I think you yourself have fallen in to that trap here.

I note the source is my mate Len…;) well you can use him as a reliable source if you want I guess…

Comment by Agmates Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-04 16:51:03

G’day Matt,

You are absolutely correct is saying comparing 1 year to the next or one month to the next is pure fantasy.

A farmer once told me the story of averages for rainfall. Say you have a 800mm average rainfall for your location. Does that mean you’ll get 800mm every year. No of course not. It means that some years you’ll get 600 and others you’ll get a 1,000 so to look at any 1 year and draw a conclusion is kidding yourself.

As too is to look at any 10 year period for that matter.

Bill Bryson illustrated it best for me that the planet as far as we know has been about for 6billion years. To illustrate how long we have been on the planet spread your arms and if the width of your arm span is 6billion years. If the start of time is the tip of your left hand then we have been here for about the white tip of a finger nail on your right hand.

Again the point of the article is that those that would have us believe that unless we stop emitting CO2 into the atmosphere the Arctic ice would disappear (this year) and this would be the ‘tipping point’ for all of Al Gores dire predictions of 6m rises in sea levels etc etc etc.

The data suggests that the planet has not warmed for a decade and the ice has not melted as much this year as it did last year.

But I can understand you and other ‘believers’ defending this as it is one of the few observable indications that believers have had since the much touted ‘hockey stick’ theory has been shown as complete fraud - by science I might ad.

To question the source is tacky of you. We are both looking at the same data from the same source. Are you questioning the reliability of the NSDIC data?

He is a simple question - does the data show to the end of August 2008 that the Arctic ice has suffered less summer melt than it did last year?

A simple yes or no will suffice as an answer.

 
 
Comment by MattB Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-04 17:06:09

I’ve already said that there is more ice according to the NSDIC data. My opening line last post states there is 400,000km2 more ice (which is now closer to one Germany not 2). I’ve also said the melt is not finished yet… and it is clear from the graph that 2008 is closing the gap up on 2007. It is the conclusions you draw that are the problem - ie that it somehow debunks the AGW myth.

I’m interested in your comment “As too is to look at any 10 year period for that matter.”… given that such a period is exactly what comes up with the suggestion that the earth has cooled since 1998… because it has also clearly warmed since 1997… the difference is that the long term trend is one of warming…

Tacky? you should see me in my safari suit!

Not that it matters, but I do hope that if the data ends up showing that 2008 catches up on or exceeds the 2007 melt that you will either post that GW must be true (yeah I’m kidding)… but at least point out that the fact that 2008 was a bigger melt is irrelevent.. just as it would have been irrelevent had it been a smaller melt.

I for one will certainly not think that the 2008 melt being greater than the 2007 melt means much.

The fact that 2007 and 2008 are the two lowest levels at the end of a long trend of decreases is what makes me pay attention to the data…

 
Comment by Jeff Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-05 16:56:45

I won’t say too much, I don’t want to conflict with Matt B

But a link to Tom Nelson’s page on the kayakers little trip from Svalsbard to the North Pole shows “surprise” - they’re stuck in the ice. (They do have a support ship)

And they where supposed to be showing us the effect of the ice melt caused by, what was it now - Warmal Globing? - Gorebull Warming? - Oh yes, it was Man Made Climate Change, wasn’t it?

The bets have been on for a few days.

Jeff

 
Comment by Jeff Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-05 16:59:42

Always helps if you post the link:
http://tinyurl.com/69a8sy

Jeff

 
Comment by Von Curtis Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-05 17:23:25

I used to give money to WWF but now I believe they are aligned with the World Bank and IMF and big corporations pushing half truths keeping us cowered down and in a state of permanent fear. Its all garbage.

They are trying to send we farmers broke or send us to the city - I refuse to give up - we are having the best spring for 20 years with fat cows and calves and a beautiful wheat crop after rain this week.

Just ignore all the phony science garbage put out by our controlled media and be very resilient and determined to survive because we have psychopaths in power in our US/UK/Israel/Australia at the moment - but they won’t kill the bush.

GW warnings reach glass shattering pitch: the Arctic may have entered a “death spiral”!

 
Comment by Von Curtis Subscribed to comments via email
2008-09-07 09:48:29

Garnaut has sat or does sit on a lot of boards.
Senior Economic Adviser to Prime Minister Bob Hawke (1983- 1985)
Australia’s Ambassador to China (1985-88)
Chairman, Primary Industry Bank of Australia Ltd (PIBA) (1989-1994)
Chairman, Bank of Western Australia Ltd (BankWest) (1988-1995)
First Assistant Secretary (Head of the Division of General Financial and Economic Policy), Papua New Guinea Department of Finance (1975-76)
Research Director of the ASEAN-Australia Economic Relations Research Project (1981-83), and
Foundation Director, Asia-Pacific School of Economics and Management (1998-2000).

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