The Rudd government is basing its climate scare campaign on CSIRO modeling. You remember -- Agriculture minister Tony Bourke said:
“While this is a scientific report, parts of these high level projections read more like a disaster novel than a scientific report.”
“What’s clear is that the cycle of drought is going to be more regular and deeper than ever.”
Well it turns out that those CSIRO reports had never been peer reviewed. Ian Castles the former head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics has now reviewed them and found among other irregularities including that the CSIRO paper used by the government to whip up the panic predicted only “up to 20% more droughts over most of Australia by 2030”.
That the Rudd Government is claiming “Australia could experience droughts twice as often [i.e., 100% more frequently] within 20 to 30 years.” is an outrageous distortion of what was presented.
The Simpson video below demonstrates that you should always be skeptical of any computer modeling done and presented by anyone who has something to gain from the outcomes projected.
Now you have watched the video have a look at the IPCC graph based on computer modeling of global temperatures. This was published in 2001. The last seven years the temperatures have not increased but actually cooled. Does the steep frightening dramatic rise on the graph remind you of the predictions for Lisa’s teeth? Does me.
To see a larger version of the map -- click here.
Here is Lord Monckton’s summary of his review of the IPCC modeling:
- The IPCC’s 2007 climate summary overstated CO2’s impact on temperature by 500-2000%;
- CO2 enrichment will add little more than 1 °F (0.6 °C) to global mean surface temperature by 2100;
- Not one of the three key variables whose product is climate sensitivity can be measured directly;
- The IPCC’s values for these key variables are taken from only four published papers, not 2,500;
- The IPCC’s values for each of the three variables, and hence for climate sensitivity, are overstated;
- “Global warming” halted ten years ago, and surface temperature has been falling for seven years;
- Not one of the computer models relied upon by the IPCC predicted so long and rapid a cooling;
- The IPCC inserted a table into the scientists’ draft, overstating the effect of ice-melt by 1000%;
- It was proved 50 years ago that predicting climate more than two weeks ahead is impossible;
- Mars, Jupiter, Neptune’s largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth warmed;
- In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years.
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Have Your say! When you hear the term ‘computer modeling’ do you immediately become a skeptic like I do?
Tags: CSIRO, Tony Burke, Video of the day