Last weekend Senior weather forecasters Predicted the best soaking rains for 2008.
“We’ve been watching several computer simulations for the past few days and they are indicating that some of the best rain for 2008 is likely next week, and this is forecast to fall over some of our worst drought affected areas,” Mr Whitaker said in a statement.
“Widespread rainfall totals of 25 to 50mm are likely over large areas of western Queensland, western NSW, northern Victoria and South Australia from Monday to Friday.
Well this is where the rain fell.
The map above is from the Bureau of Meteorology from the 1st to 10th of July. Areas that received over 25mls (1 inch) are green. You can see for yourself how accurate these prediction were just a few days out. They were wrong - what a surprise.
Apparently the scientists can’t be accurate 3 days out, but 30 years from now they can. What a ridiculous assumption / conclusion that is.
Each day we hear of the dire predictions for our rainfall and temperature in 20-30 and 50 years time. We are expected to take this computer modeling seriously (and unbelievably State and Federal governments are) when they aren’t even remotely accurate just days ahead.
Climatologist Stewart Franks an expert in hydro-climatic variability at the University of Newcastle in NSW said scenarios set out by Ross Garnaut in his Emission Trading Scheme recommendations were simply wrong. He said
“The whole idea that you can say that by 2030 or 2040 rainfall will be a certain percentage less is a complete nonsense because it ignores the natural variability,”
Read all that Stewart had to say in an article in this weeks Australian Newspaper. Garnaut scenario ’simply wrong’
New South Wales Treasurer Michael Costa caused a stir this week when he called parts of Professor Garnaut’s report “Chicken Little arguments” (You know -The Sky is falling”) In his column in the Australian he says:
“For example, claims from some quarters that the Great Barrier Reef would be destroyed if Australia, which emits less than 2 per cent of global greenhouse gases, does not adopt an ETS are patent nonsense.
Chicken Little arguments are no substitute for getting right the important details on issues of far-reaching consequence.”
Photo 2: Below is a BOM map showing the % of rainfall received across Australia for the last 2 years compared to the mean.
Federal agriculture minister Tony Burke (pictured below) earlier this month released a joint assessment by the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO. In particular, the study found exceptionally high temperatures would occur almost yearly, while low rainfall would almost double in frequency from current figures. He said:
“While this is a scientific report, parts of these high level projections read more like a disaster novel than a scientific report.”
“What’s clear is that the cycle of drought is going to be more regular and deeper than ever.”
Minister Burke even though he was being serious is quiet correct. It is just science fiction.
Finally, lets keep it all in a bit of perspective. Heres the BOM map showing the area of Australia that is in drought for the last 2 years. To paraphrase Stewart Franks - we have seen it all before and we’ll see it all again. The good seasons and the bad.
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Have your Say! Am I “barking mad” or is all the climate change hysteria something these people are going to look back at and be very embarrassed about?
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Tags: BOM, CSIRO, Propaganda, Tony Burke
No argument Ed, you are dead right, not to say change is not going to occur but the hysteria is a bit lke the y2000 bug, remember….nothing happened.
The BOM/CSIRO report makes interesting reading particularly as it shows a decided upturn of temperatures starting in a couple of years.
I find it difficult to accept that data coming out of the CSIRO is ‘faulty’ however that is the reality!
G’day Tom,
I don’t know if you have seen it but an extremely good article by the Australian Editor Paul Kelly ‘Government caught in a carbon crunch’ may explain why the government is trying to scare the Australian public through these highly questionable CSIRO reports..
Kelly says - “first the public must believe enough in the risk of climate change to support Rudd taking decisive action”
Its really worth a read - you can do that by clicking here. If you do read it - please come back and lets us know what you think.
Most rural people agree with you. We have seen it all before.
The problem is that most of the people making these predictions will be dead before the date of the prediction!!
I just hope that they are proved wrong very soon, but every major change is put down to climate change. My family have rain records back to before 1900 on the one property in Far North Queensland and nothing has changed. We have had big drys, big wets, huge floods, bad droughts, early winters, no cold weather, severe winters and it just keeps cycling round.
These climate change gurus are going to break us all as none of it will be pain free. We are still earning the same money for our cattle as we were 35 years ago so we cannot take much more.
Veg Management and leasehold renewals will force graziers to run less cattle, so we don’t need extra costs because of the carbon trading bull.
G’day Judy,
Your records back to 1900 confirm that Climate Change is happening. It’s changed since the planet was formed 6 billion years ago.
What every farmer knows is that the Climate Changes.
Where the worlds populous has been duped is believing that we are causing it. Mass Climate Change hysteria is sweeping the globe.
What they want is to cut carbon emissions across the globe and if industries must be sacrificed eg farming - then so be it.Farming in Australia is what is considered the ‘low fruit’ - easy picking.
We have seen it already with the Tree Clearing bans that have locked up 100’s of thousand acres of good agricultural land. Landholders property rights have been violated in a most undemocratic way - yet the landholder citizens copped it with hardly a whimper.
Next Agriculture will be made a non viable industry in Australia. Farmers, divided in opinion and unwilling to take any action will cop this as well. As the majority of family farmers are over 50 they will sell their land and leave the industry. It won’t be bought by younger farmers it will be bought by corporations - many foreign owned.
Small towns in Australia will shrivel and die. If a Carbon Trading Scheme is introduced in 2010 in the next decade we will see the end of generational family farms and thriving small bush towns in Australia will be a thing of the past.
Yet not enough farmers and rural people care enough to get up, get vocal and act to save the family farming tradition and way of life.
Personally I believe that will be a very poor outcome for Australia - but not enough people seem to care.
Will “these people” be embarrassed? NEVER!!
They will simply move on to a higher position in the public service to another niche where they will continue sucking on the taxpayer teat, getting it wrong and giving the bill to you and I.
Unfortunately you are right Rod,
The CSIRO (Commonwealth Science & Industrial Research Organization) has lost all credibility in my eyes. They have become a mere puppet in the governments PR (propaganda) machine. Churning out research results that assist the governments agenda.
Take for instance their latest report that predicts fuel prices will go to $8 a litre in the next 10 years. That would make them the only organization I know of that is predicting oil will go to $672 a barrel. (Imagine what Dubai will be like then.)
Work it out - with the price of oil at $147 a barrel fuel is $1.75 a litre. For it to be $8 a litre it would be making $672 a barrel. Do you know of anybody in the world predicting oil will hit $672 a barrel within 10 years. Its an absurd prediction.
What it is timed to to in my opinion is make us Australians think that maybe $1.75 or $2 a litre is not so bad compared to what it will be.
The CSIRO has no credibility left in my book. I think the initials now stand for the Completely, Scary, Incredulous, Rubbish, Organization.
The most alarming aspect of the “will it? won’t it?” climate change campaign is the very bitter divisions being generated. People are put in a position of being for it or against it and anyone questioning the ‘for it’ juggernaut is publicly assaulted.
What sort of science is this?
Frankly I have no idea what the future is, which would put me with the vast majority of mankind. I am disturbed by the vested interests marketing their point of view aggressively using bully boy tactics that would do Robert Mugabe proud.
I would have more respect for a reasoned journey of discovery scrutinizing all the science available, both for and against. The current “we’ll all be ‘ruined” activity seems to have as little credibility as “she’ll be right mate’.
Climate change concerns me a whole lot less than the climate of fear being driven by the ‘true believers’.
G’day Rod,
I applaud your common sense and balanced view of the issue. I find that in todays world that people with ‘common sense’ are relatively uncommon.
I note your comments of having ‘no idea what the future is’ - here is the latest warning from the CSIRO that the PM is trumpeting - See story here.
“The CSIRO’s latest forecast for the Murray-Darling Basin …… the worst case scenario would be a massive 41 per cent cut; with flows to the Lower Lakes at the mouth of the Murray in South Australia down by 69 per cent.”
Honestly - this is just political spin - which is another name for propaganda.
G’day AGMATES,
I’d have to say I agree with the comments above. I myself am sick and tied of hearing all this bull about climate change.
It is so two faced of the government. One minute Mr Rudd the Dud is in a tearing hurry to sign up on the Koyoto protocol agreement to reduce green house gas and on the hand he and other gov. dept. are digging up the coal as quick as possible to sell to China so they can burn it in their power stations which produces great heaps of guess what.
So I ask of the government,which way do you want it, YOU CAN’T HAVE THE CAKE AND EAT IT AS WELL.
Have you read the book titled “The Forgotten King”, it is a biography of a man which I consider the greatest Australian ever, Sir Sydney Kidman, in this book it speaks of the droughts and the good times that come and go in this great land of ours. The climate has been changing back and forth for hundreds of years and will continue to do so for hundreds of years to come.
I am proudly 3rd generation on the land, and I have seen the feed bills as big as or bigger than the milk cheque coming in the front gate in a drought as I have seen floods,green grass and fat cattle. That is the nature of this land we live in.
I wish the pollies and the so called scientists would stop using this climate change thing as a feeble attempt of justifying their own existence,they can’t accurately tell us about the weather next week but can they can tell us so much about 50 years to come (so they say).
By the way, damned good web site, your on a good thing.
G’day John,
Thanks for that. Agmates is only as good as our members make it. It people like yourself having their ‘2 bobs worth’ that makes it so good.
Yes I have read ‘The Forgotten King’ and agree with you - a truly great Australian. You might be interested to read this article published in Early April about one of our Agmates - Meet David Edwards - Quilpie Mayor Descendant of Kidmans boys.
Like all farmers you know we have periods of droughts and periods of good times. In fact you have to look no further than the governments own BOM web site on drought - it lists the major droughts Australia has had over the last 100 years.
The Federation Drought 1898-1902, the World War droughts 1914-15 or the king of them all the second world war drought that went from 1937-1945, or the 1965-1968 drought or 1982-1983 etc, etc, etc - Where was man made climate change then?
Climate change is causing drought in Australia - come on, that’s a joke.
Western NSW grazier Albert Lacey of Pine View gave me the best explanation I’ve ever heard. Pine View is on the NSW / SA border in the desert. During a really dry time there he explained that he was not particularly worried that they had 4 dry years with below average rainfall.
He told me - If your average rainfall is 10 inches a year and you get a run of years when you get 6 inches a year - you just know that somewhere along the track you’ll get a few years when the rainfall is well above 10 inches. Thats why they call it the ‘long term average rainfall’. That does not mean your going to get 10 inches a year. It just means its exactly that - an average over say 100 years.
He said a bit ‘tongue in cheek’ - Its the times when we get a run of 2-3 years of well above average rainfall that I start to worry - because I just know that we are going to get a run of well below average rainfall years to square the average up.
Now thats common sense.
On that I must say that your comments about Rudd and Coal mining are spot on the money - You have pointed out the incredible Hypocrisy of Rudd & Labors Climate Change Spin. - Well done.
G’day All,
You will be very interested that leading scientists have checked the CSIRO’s modeling for these alarmists reports.
This is what they found:
“I am more confident in my original assessment that the results show no significant increase in drought due to greenhouse warming in almost all regions of Australia”
Read Agmates latest article
“Scientists & Farmers Question CSIRO Scare Mongering Reports”.
Moral to the story - Don’t ever stop questioning what you read in the mainstream press.